NOAClim - No‐Analogue Climates and ecological responses in the past and future

Project Department: Uni Research Climate (group: Climate Variability) period: 01.09.13 - 31.08.16

About the project

"Fossil pollen and climate models suggest a messy world in 2100, as surviving species reshuffle into entirely new combinations, creating 'no-analogue' ecosystems" (Fox 2007, Science 316:823). NoAClim is designed to test this scenario for Norden and the Baltic Countries. Its approach is to develop climate hindcasts and predictions for every 250 yrs through the Holocene and 500 yrs into the future (100 yr intervals) using a regional climate model derived from the HadCM3 model. Climate-analogue analysis is used to detect no-analogue climates relative to today in the past and the future. Using the rich array of pollen-stratigraphical data, no-analogue assemblages will be identified using modern analogue techniques. Key niche metrics (optimum tolerance) of the major pollen taxa will be estimated for different times in the Holocene and today to explore if these metrics have changed with time. These metrics will be used with future climate simulations to predict 'ensembles' of future abundances of major pollen taxa that will be transformed into estimates of future plant abundances. Scenario planning will then be applied to provide informed bases for future management and adaptation strategies.

NoAClim Team

  • John Birks, PI, University of Bergen - Project Manager
  • Paul Valdes, University of Bristol
  • Will Roberts, University of Bristol
  • Jack Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison
  • Camille Li, University of Bergen
  • Bjørg Reisebrobakken, Uni Climate (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research), Bergen
  • Anne Bjune, Uni Climate, Bergen
  • Richard Telford, University of Bergen
  • Alistair Seddon, University of Bergen
  • Mathias Trachsel, University of Bergen
  • Heikki Seppä, University of Helsinki
  • Thomas Geisecke, University of Göttingen
  • Kathy Willis, Universities of Oxford and Bergen
  • Marc Macias Fauria, University of Oxford
  • Joe Chipperfield, University of Bergen
  • Arild Breistøl, University of Bergen
  • Cathy Jenks, University of Bergen

For more information: http://www.uib.no/en/rg/EECRG/56799/noaclim

cp: 2019-12-04 11:16:32